Marseille vs Benfica Prediction 18 April 2024

Marseille's season has not gone according to plan, so in February, Gassé replaced Gattuso as coach. Benfica managed without a coaching dismissal and until recently was performing successfully in all tournaments until it was knocked out of the Portuguese Cup. According to forecasts, both teams are considered outsiders of the Europa League playoffs. But reaching the semifinals will definitely boost one of them. So far, Benfica is closer to this, but at the “Velodrome” in Marseille, the home team is capable of surprising.

Before the upcoming match, Marseille has as many as seven players on the injury list. The loss of full-backs Clauss and Merlin seems to be the biggest, the former of whom was even called up to the French national team in the spring. Onana is an important rotation player, without whom Marseille has not won a single match. Benfica only has one loss - Araujo. He missed the first match of the Europa League quarter-finals, but often made it into the starting lineup over the course of the season.

Referee statistics. Felix Zwayer (Germany) is appointed for the match. In his last 28 matches, he has shown an average of 4.43 yellow cards per match. During this period, the referee only sent off a player twice and awarded a penalty in 18 percent of matches. Over a stretch of 28 matches, Zwayer averages 23 fouls. The German remains consistent when reviewing his last 100 games.

In matches involving Marseille, an average of 24.1 fouls are recorded (11.6 by the French club). Benfica's games are less frequently interrupted by the referee's whistle - averaging 20.1 fouls. The Portuguese themselves also rarely commit fouls - 9.9. If we look at the statistics for yellow cards, Marseille averages 1.9, while Benfica - 1.6. Considering the referee's consistency in recording fouls, it is worth looking at a bet on Total fouls less (25.5) for 1.55.

The opponents have played three official head-to-head matches. In each of them, both teams scored, with Marseille never winning. The first encounter in this confrontation, which took place last week, was no exception. Then Rafa Silva and Di Maria gave Benfica a comfortable advantage. But in the middle of the second half, Aubameyang reduced the deficit.

After a series of victories with a new coach, Marseille lost in five consecutive matches. This forces the team to move forward and look for moments to recover.

However, the team does not take enough corners trying to recover, as evidenced by the trend - Marseille takes fewer than 5.5 corners in 7 out of their last 8 matches. Therefore, a bet on Corners - Marseille Total less (5.5) for 1.92 looks quite appealing.

Benfica is largely a home team. It scores a lot but not away.

The trend is eloquent - Benfica scores less than 1.5 goals away in 6 consecutive matches. Therefore, it makes sense to take advantage of the offer Benfica Total goals less (1.5) for 1.6.

Marseille is forced to recover after a defeat in Lisbon. If it is unlikely to take risks in the first half, then after the break, the situation may force an attack. Therefore, a bet on 2nd half, Marseille Total goals More (0.5) for 1.6 looks optimal.